The ruling YSRCP led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy is set to romp home with a 48.5 percent vote share in the upcoming Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh, according to the latest survey of Sri Atmasakhi Group. Titled ‘The Mood of Andhra Pradesh as of 23-03-2024’, the survey report predicted the ruling party to win 93-106 Assembly seats and 15-17 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Andhra Pradesh will go to simultaneous polls on May 13, 2024 with the votes to be counted and results to be declared on June 4, 2024.
The group, which enjoys credibility for its psephology work across the nation, came up with similar predictions in its earlier survey released in the first week of March this year. As per its latest survey findings, the TDP-BJP-JSP combine or the NDA alliance will receive a cumulative vote share of 46.5 percent. The opposition alliance is thus tipped to win 50-69 Assembly seats out of the total 175 while it shows promise to wrest 5-8 Lok Sabha seats. The survey report classified the Assembly constituencies into three categories, namely, ‘edge for the YSRCP’, ‘edge for the TDP-BJP-JSP combine’ and ‘keen contest’.
Interestingly, the latest survey findings of Sri Atmasakshi Group come close on the heels of a report of the Andhra Pradesh Intelligence Department that was reportedly presented to Chief Minister YS Jagan a few days back. According to reports, the Intelligence report too echoed a fairly similar public mood, projecting 110-115 Assembly seats for the ruling YSRCP in the coming elections.
Significantly, the two survey reports of Atmasakshi group within a span of a month reveal that the YSRCP keeps up its good hold on winning a second straight term in the state. In both the surveys, the YSRCP has been projected to maintain a clear two-percent dominance in vote share over the NDA alliance. In another interesting feature, the survey predicted a ‘keen contest’ in 32 Assembly constituencies. In this scenario, the YSRCP has a clear edge in 93 seats while the same is the case for the opposition alliance in 50 constituencies. In the remaining 32 seats, there will be a ‘keen contest’, with the chances of the eventual result going either way.
In vote share, about three percent will go to ‘others’ which also includes the Congress. But more interestingly, the survey also records a two percent of undecided voters/silent vote factor, which may also influence the fortunes of the main stakeholders.
Even in the district-wise prospects, the Atmasakshi survey reports predicts a sweep of the YSRCP in Rayalaseema region (Chittoor, Kadapa, Kurnool and Anantapur), if not on the same scale as in the 2019 elections. The ruling party is expected to win 35 seats this time around in these four districts even as the TDP is likely to marginally improve its tally to 11 seats while there will be a keen contest in about six constituencies.
Even though the report shows the TDP closing in on the YSRCP in some of the 13 erstwhile undivided districts, the ruling party manages to maintain its lead, however big or slender it is. In the three districts of Uttarandhra (Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam), the survey gives the YSRCP 17 seats while predicting an edge for the alliance in nine seats. This is besides another eight seats where a keen contest could be witnessed.
In the East and West Godavari districts, traditionally considered very crucial for the fortunes of any party coming to power in the state, Atmasakshi predicts a relatively closer fight between the two main contenders. In the erstwhile East, the YSRCP is expected to wrest eight seats with the TDP closely tailing with seven seats even as a keen contest is predicted in another four seats. In West Godavari, the YSRCP (seven) has a better lead over the TDP (four) with four other seats likely to witness a stiffer contest.
In the remaining four coastal districts of Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam and Nellore, the ruling party is tipped to register victories in 28 constituencies while the TDP may end up with 19 seats. As many as 10 seats are likely to witness a tough battle between the two main players in these four districts.