Just when a perception is crystalising among the public that all the credible pre-poll surveys are predicting yet another sweep by the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP seems to have played its ace to save its face. National English news channel India Today TV broadcasted a C-voter survey report the other day as part of its ‘Mood of the nation’ programme. The C-voter report claims that the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu will win 17 Lok Sabha seats in the state, giving the ailing opposition party something to cling on to, in desperation.
As per the survey group, which has a poor record in calling the election-time public mood right, the ruling YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh is only going to win eight Lok Sabha seats. Based on its so-called exercise with a miniscule sample size, C-voter thinks that the TDP will garner 45 percent votes leaving the YSRCP with 41 percent support from the electorate. Interestingly, the survey gives only two percent vote share to NDA which also technically features Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. The INDIA bloc may receive another three percent, the report predicts.
Before seeing through the fallacy of the C-voter survey, the report unwittingly throws up a paradoxical scenario that becomes relevant after Chandrababu Naidu’s latest Delhi visit. As we speak, Chandrababu Naidu is pulling out all the stops to rope in the BJP into an alliance that will also have the Jana Sena in the mix in Andhra Pradesh. This begs the question as to what makes Chandrababu Naidu crave for the support of a national party with only a two-percent projected vote share in the state if the TDP alone can win 17 Lok Sabha seats on a 45 percent vote strength. The survey almost calls the Jana Sena a dud, failing to make any impact for the second straight time in 2024 elections.
How credible is C-voter psephology?
C-voter has been in the psephology trade for quite some time but has never been a trusted name, thanks to its proven track record of horrendously wrong pre-poll predictions. One does not have to dig deep into the history to unravel this. There is the latest proof from the most recent elections, held in five states in December last year. The C-voter survey predicted a thumping victory of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The people’s verdict ran straight in its face as the BJP won the poll battle convincingly in both the states.
The C-voter prophecies also went horribly wrong in Andhra Pradesh. In 2019, the psephology group projected a fancy victory for the TDP with 14 Lok Sabha seats and 140 Assembly seats. The YS Jagan-led YSRCP created history by winning 22 Parliamentary seats out of the total of 25 and 151 Assembly seats as against the total 175. In a nutshell, the C-voter survey was far removed from the ground scenario and consequently, its predictions ended up as a big joke. With a similar sham exercise when the elections are round the corner in Andhra Pradesh, the C-voter survey has sparked suspicions of foul-play to serve the interests of the TDP.
Why C-voter and not Axis My India for India Today?
Cynical it may seem but here is an innocuous piece of trivia that is worth a glance. India Today TV, one of the most watched and venerated national news channels, appears to opt for ‘horses for courses’ approach when it comes to its survey-based election analysis. The news channel collaborates with Axis My India survey group for pre-poll and exit poll surveys. For reasons best known to it, it however employs other players in the trade including the C-voter for its monthly ‘Mood of the nation’ programme.
In fact, it has emerged to be the ‘go-to’ channel for accurate pre-poll and exit poll predictions, thanks to its psephology partner Axis My India. There were instances where the channel put its reputation on the line when Axis My India predicted results in complete contrast to others and called them right too. In essence, the news channel itself does not invest its full faith in C-voter when it comes to big-ticket pre-poll and exit poll surveys and hence confines it only to its monthly ‘Mood of the nation’ exercise.
Ironically, the channel’s previous ‘Mood of the nation’ survey had given the YSRCP a clear edge. Keen Observers of politics in the two Telugu states are bound to be bewildered, wondering if the tables have turned so drastically in Andhra Pradesh in such a short span of time. All that the TDP is managing these days are mostly empty chairs at Chandrababu Naidu’s public meetings. On the other hand, the YSRCP cadre are on a high after YS Jagan’s two recent ‘Siddham’ public meetings became a big hit, attracting party workers and general public in lakhs. If the popular support, as visible on the streets, is not an indication, then what else is? No one can solve this riddle except C-voter..!