The political dynamics in Andhra Pradesh, if viewed from one side of the prism, are poised for an interesting shift. The speculation of a TDP-BJP-Jana Sena poll alliance, which became intense after Chandrababu Naidu’s recent Delhi visit, has added its bit to the election heat in the state.

For now, it is still under tight wraps but strong indications of the ‘threesome’ combining for the hustings came right from the BJP’s strongman Amit Shah. Speaking to the media on Saturday, Amit Shah said that the idea of a poll alliance in Andhra Pradesh would get firmed up in a few days. The Union Home Minister however has revealed enough even while trying to be cryptic in his remarks.

He said that ‘new friends’ are coming to the fold of the NDA and that “bigger the political coalition, better will be the prospects.” Shah also struck a reconciliatory chord while empathising with their ‘friends’ who quit the NDA in the past and are ready to re-enter. He said that they had never shunted their friends out of their bloc and that they might have left on their own volition due to political equations in their respective states.

It may have sounded like a ‘whom so ever it may concern’ statement. But, in the immediate aftermath of his confabulations with Chandrababu Naidu, who waited till midnight for this opportunity the other day, it is clear that he was strongly hinting at the return of the TDP to the NDA after a gap of five years. Is it wise enough to once embrace Chandrababu Naidu, especially after tasting his betrayals umpteen times and treating him as a ‘pariah’ since the 2019 elections? Well, time will decide the prudence of the BJP’s latest gamble, which is also a point for debate for another occasion.

Run with the hare, hunt with the hound

The critical message from Amit Shah comes when the BJP is actually looking to play a ‘run-with-the-hare-and-hunt-with-the-hound’ game. How dangerous or convenient is this for the BJP will again be decided in the impending general and Assembly elections in AP.

In a span of 24 hours, the BJP top brass held meetings, first with Chandrababu Naidu and then, with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and YSRCP chief YS Jaganmohan Reddy. The motives notwithstanding, there was a marked difference in the way the two were received and treated.

On one side, Chandrababu Naidu had to wait with his fingers crossed from late afternoon till late in the night to meet Amit shah and BJP national president J P Nadda. There was no such drama in their meetings with YS Jagan. Also, the images of YS Jagan’s meetings with the two BJP bigwigs and finally Prime Minister Narendra Modi the next morning strikingly hogged the headlines. But, in contrast, not a single photograph of Naidu’s engagements in Delhi made it to the press.

Even the yellow media, which usually goes on a publicity blitz to create hype for Chandrababu’s high-profile meetings, was in a complete ‘hush, hush’ mode.

It was speculated enough by now that the BJP has finally decided to bury the hatchet with Chandrababu Naidu, which only gets confirmed with Amit Shah’s latest comments. As if answering the prayers of a desperate Naidu, the BJP appears to have made up its mind to join hands with the TDP and Jana Sena after a careful analysis of various influencing factors. The move, if turns out to be true, comes with the hope that the three can repeat what they did in the 2014 elections. But with the saffron party still preferring to take its own sweet time and, in the process, hampering the crucial seat-sharing exercise, a formal announcement on the alliance is not really expected before February 18, 2024.

Balancing act with YS Jagan

Interestingly, while keeping Chandrababu in play, the BJP top leadership also seems to have made deft moves to do the balancing act with YS Jagan as part of its deep-rooted plan. As reliable sources put it, a key message was delivered to the YSRCP president, first during his meeting with Amit Shah and J P Nadda and during his meeting the next day with Narendra Modi. YS Jagan had a one-on-one with the prime minister for about 45 minutes.

It is being speculated that Modi and the BJP top brass had reassured YS Jagan of the Centre’s continued support for Andhra Pradesh even if they lock horns with each other in the forthcoming Assembly elections. Another rumour claims that the idea of a post-poll support of the YSRCP to the NDA was also broached and discussed.

The plan was reportedly mooted as part of the BJP’s agenda to neutralise its arch rival Congress in South India, where it gave signs of gaining some ground following its victories in Karnataka and most recently in Telangana.

Whatever are the considerations, the BJP appears to treat YS Jagan as more important and of longer-term value than Chandrababu, who it may be leveraging for some short-term benefits. In other words, it feels that the experiment with an alliance once again is worth trying especially since the party has no serious hopes from the 2024 elections in Andhra Pradesh.

With both the TDP and the Jana Sena in a submissive mode to accommodate it, the BJP can actually dictate terms in deciding the seat-sharing while gobbling up the ones favourable to it, even if they are few in number. Alternately, the party may also be hoping to help the combine win a few more Lok Sabha seats than anticipated, riding high on the overwhelming Ram mandir euphoria.

Most importantly, the saffron party is also well aware of Chandrababu’s playbook of opportunistic politics and his notoriety for switching sides with ease. It knows that the wily veteran will lose no time to beckon the Congress for an alliance once the NDA doors are slammed shut on him. This is the last thing that the saffron party would want to happen as any seats won by the TDP will end up helping the Congress’ cause at the Centre.

By joining the alliance, the BJP wants to have the TDP and its Lok Sabha numbers firmly in its grasp while it can anyway trust the YSRCP for support during crunch times. YS Jagan has extended issue-based support to the NDA a few times in the past. The strategic support is a part of his policy to maintain cordial relations with the party in power at the Centre in exchange for funds and benefits for the state.

In effect, the BJP is playing a strange but effective game in Andhra Pradesh to insure in advance the support of both the bitter rivals in the state.